Fact check: State unemployment rates impacted by the pandemic

The claim: Several states with Democratic governors have higher unemployment rates than states with Republican governors

Unemployment rates have been closely watched as the U.S. economy slowly recovers from pandemic-induced job losses.

One viral social media post claims that some states have the highest unemployment rates because they’re run by Democratic governors.

The post lists Hawaii, Nevada, California, Colorado and New York as the states with the highest unemployment rates, ranging from 9.3% to 8.2%. 

The states with the lowest unemployment rates are Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Vermont and Utah, ranging from 3% to 3.6%, according to the post. The post notes that these states all have Republican governors.

The post has been shared 1,700 times. USA TODAY has reached out to the user for comment.

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Pandemic numbers aren't fair comparison

The post correctly notes the political affiliation of governors for those 10 states. And the figures listed are accurate numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for December.

But economists say the post lacks context. 

“The numbers are correct, but they have nothing to do with Democratic vs. Republican governors,” Sang-Hyop Lee, an economics professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, told USA TODAY via email.

Comparing jobless rates during the pandemic can be misleading, Lee said. Hawaii’s unemployment rate was one of the lowest in the U.S., at 2.7% in December 2019. Nevada had an unemployment rate of 3.7%, and Colorado had an unemployment rate of 2.5%, according to the BLS.

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In comparison, Nebraska’s unemployment rate was at 3% in December 2019. South Dakota’s unemployment rate stood at 3.4% — higher than Hawaii's but lower than Nevada's.

Each state's economy has different base

State economies also vary, making it difficult to draw comparisons.

Hawaii, for example, has a robust tourist economy that has suffered because fewer people are traveling during the pandemic. Visitor arrivals to the islands in July 2020 dropped by nearly 98% compared with the same month in 2019, the Associated Press reported.

“Due to its heavy economic reliance on tourism, Hawaii's unemployment rocketed in 2020,” Lee said.

Other states, like Nebraska, rely less on tourism and have not been similarly impacted by reduced travel, said Christopher Mann, an economics professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

“Not as many people are coming to visit, for example, in Nebraska than in New York,” Mann said.

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Our rating: Missing context

The claim that several states with Democratic governors have higher unemployment rates than states with Republican governors is MISSING CONTEXT, based on our research. Jobless rates have been significantly impacted by the pandemic, related to the economy of each state, rather than the politics of leadership.

Our fact-checking sources: 

• The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 5, "U.S. Employers Added 49,000 Jobs in January"
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Unemployment Rates for States”
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “State unemployment rates over the last 10 years, seasonally adjusted”
• Email from Sang-Hyop Lee, an economics professor at the University of Hawaii, Feb. 4
• The Associated Press, Aug. 28, 2020, “Hawaii visitor arrivals down almost 98% in July as coronavirus pandemic decimates tourism”
• Interview with Christopher Mann, an economics professor at the University of Nebraska, Feb. 4

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Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook.